目 录
引言····················································1
第一节 研究背景与意义········································1
一、我国通货膨胀的现实······································1
二、研究意义················································2
第二节文献综述················································3
一、国内文献················································3
二、国外文献················································6
第三节研究主题、思路、方法与结构······························11
一、研究主题··················································11
二、研究思路与方法············································11
三、论文结构··················································12
第二章通货膨胀的理论分析········································13
第一节通货膨胀的定义··········································13
一通货膨胀的内涵与外延······································13
二、现代通货膨胀的基本特征····································14
第二节通货膨胀的衡量··········································15
一、通货膨胀的衡量指标······································15
二、通货膨胀的分类··········································16
第三节影响通货膨胀的主要因素··································17
一、货币因素················································17
二、总需求变动··············································18
三、成本因素················································18
四、预期因素················································18
五、国际因素················································19
六、政府清廉程度············································20
第三章我国通货膨胀的状况:数据分析·······························23
第一节我国2002年~2013年通货膨胀的基本状况···················23 一、我国2002年~2005年通货膨胀的基本状况························25
二、我国2006年一2009年通货膨胀的基本状况·····················25
三、我国2010年~2013年通货膨胀的基本状况······················26
第二节我国2002年~2013年通货膨胀的基本特征·····················26
一、我国2002年~2005年通货膨胀的基本特征·····················26
二、我国2006年~2009年通货膨胀的基本特征·····················27
三、我国2010年~2013年通货膨胀的基本特征·····················28
第三节我国通货膨胀的趋势·······································29
一、我国通货膨胀变动的基本特征·······························29
二、我国通货膨胀变动的背景···································29
第四章我国通货膨胀发生机理:实证研究·······························31
第一节模型设定、数据说明与处理··································31
一、模型设定··················································31
二、数据说明··················································31
三、数据处理··················································32
第二节我国2002年~2013年通货膨胀的实证分析······················41
一、我国2002年~2005年通货膨胀的实证分析····················· 41
二、我国2006年~2009年通货膨胀的实证分析······················46
三、我国2010年~20”年通货膨胀的实证分析······················49
第三节我国通货膨胀的形成机制··································· 53
一、基本原因与诱发因素········································53
二、传导机制的特点:快速扩张及叠加效应·························54
第五章各类商品价格对通货膨胀的作用································56
第一节各类商品价格对通货膨胀的作用······························56
一、模型设定与数据说明·········································56
二、计量分析··················································57
第二节各类食品价格对通货膨胀的作用······························64
一、模型设定与数据说明········································64
二、计量分析··················································64
第三节实证结果总结··············································67
一、各类商品价格指数为视角····································67
二、各类食品价格指数为视角········································67
第六章我国现阶段通货膨胀的治理建议······························· 69
第一节转变经济发展方式··········································69
一、提高全要素生产率，促进总产出的提高·························69
二、减小对国际能源的依赖程度···································70
第二节提高货币政策的效力·········································71
一、格守规则的货币政策，不使用易变的货币政策····················71
二、确定货币政策传导机制各环节间的关系··························71
三、减轻货币政策时滞所产生的影响······························72
四、治理高通货膨胀时，应主要采取紧缩性货币政策················72
第三节完善流动性管理、合理利用外资······························72
一、完善流动性管理············································72
二、合理利用外商投资··········································72
参考文献··························································74
致谢······························································78
在读期间完成的科研成果目录········································79
内 容 摘 要
通货膨胀，长期以来一直是经济学和金融学领域里一个炙手可热的研究问
题，没有任何一个问题能够像通货膨胀一样被反复研究讨论。它是影响大多数
国家经济健康发展并且反复发作的顽症，牵涉到一个国家的经济社会稳定以及
人民大众的生活水平。而在不同的经济发展时期，通货膨胀的发生机理是不同
的，必须根据不同的通货膨胀发生机理来制定不同的通货膨胀治理政策。基于
此，本文在归纳总结通货膨胀相关文献的基础上，采用定量分析与定性分析相
结合的研究方法，对2002年以来我国通货膨胀的发生机理进行比较分析，并针
对现阶段的发生机理提出相应的治理对策。本文首先对通货膨胀进行理论分析;
随后对2002年以后我国所经历的各轮通货膨胀的基本特征、基本状况进行比较
分析，说明导致我国各轮通货膨胀的基本原因、诱发因素是不同的，然后归纳
出现阶段我国通货膨胀的发生机理和传导机制;随后从分类商品价格指数的视
角来看我国现阶段的通货膨胀;最后在不影响我国经济正常增长的情况下，对
现阶段所存在的通货膨胀的治理提出政策性建议。通过研究发现，现阶段我国
通货膨胀主要是由于社会消费品零售总额的增长率、国际市场能源价格指数的
增长率、准货币供应量的增长率、粮食类商品价格的上升所造成的，而实际利
用外商直接投资金额的增加对抑制通货膨胀有一定的作用。并以此提出了治理
我国现阶段通货膨胀的措施:一、转变经济发展方式;二、提高货币政策的效
力;三、完善流动性管理、合理利用外资。
