利率变动对房地产价格的冲击及影响

摘  要

随着我国利率化市场的开放，利率化市场的发展来了全新的局面，然而，利率贷款的上限及下限在一定程度上都是由央行进行直接管控，因此，我国房地产市场利率在一定程度上是受国家监管且进行合理调控的一种结果。也正因如此，利率变动成为我国政府调控房地产市场的主要方式之一。当前，学术界对利率统一调控用于区域房地产市场能否产生非均衡效应这一问题展开了激烈了探讨。在全国各个区域当中，城市房价能够在一定程度上反映出该区域的经济发展情况。在国家统一的利率政策下，各区域的房产价格所表现出的房价波动并不相同，因此，利率变动对城市房产价格的影响一直以来都备受全国人民的关注。二十世纪末，我国实施了住房改革政策，政策的实施导致了我国房地产企业热度迅速上升的局面，进而威胁到了我国经济体系的正常发展。因此，本文通过利率传导机制来对房产价格变动之间的关系进行研究，以建模实证的方式来对影响我国房地产价格的各个影响因素进行协整性检验，最终得出以下结论：我国房地产市场中利率变动与投资者投资行为及房屋价格有着较强的关联，并呈现出负面相关性。这说明了利率变动能够对我国房地产市场起到一定的影响作用，从中长及长期利率变动的角度来看，利率变动能够对房地产市场有着较大的影响作用。

关键词：房地产；利率变动；房地产价格

The impact of interest rate changes on real estate prices

ABSTRACT

With the opening of China's interest rate market, the development of the interest rate market has entered a new situation. However, the upper and lower limits of interest rate loans are to a certain extent directly controlled by the central bank. Therefore, the interest rate in China's real estate market is to a certain extent a result of state supervision and reasonable regulation. Because of this, interest rate change has become one of the main ways for the Chinese government to regulate the real estate market. At present, the academia has launched a fierce discussion on whether the uniform regulation of interest rate can produce unbalanced effect in the regional real estate market. Under the unified national interest rate policy, the real estate prices in different regions show different fluctuations. Therefore, the impact of interest rate changes on urban real estate prices has been attracting the attention of people all over the country. At the end of the 20th century, China implemented the housing reform policy, the implementation of which led to the rapid rise in the heat of China's real estate enterprises, and then threatened the normal development of China's economic system. Therefore, based on the interest rate transmission mechanism to study of the relationship between the real estate price changes, in a way that is modeling the empirical influence the various influence factors of China's real estate price cointegration test, finally draw the following conclusion: the interest rate changes and investors in the investment behavior of the real estate market in China and the housing price has a strong correlation, and present a negative correlation. This shows that interest rate changes can have a certain impact on China's real estate market. From the perspective of long-term and medium-term interest rate changes, interest rate changes can have a greater impact on the real estate market.

Key words： real estate; interest rate change; real estate price

目  录

1 绪论1

1.1 研究背景1

1.2 研究意义2

1.2.1 理论意义2

1.2.2 现实意义2

1.3 国内外研究现状2

1.3.1 国外研究现状2

1.3.2 国内研究现状3

1.4 研究内容及路线3

2 利率变动与房地产市场发展现状5

2.1 利率发展历史5

2.1.1 利率政策演变过程5

2.1.2 利率市场化演变5

2.2 房地产市场发展现状6

2.2.1 房屋价格上涨较快6

2.2.2 房价收入比过高7

2.2.3 土地价格助推房地产价格上行8

2.2.4 利率调控房地产价格趋于常态9

2.2.5 房地产投资增长较快10

2.2.6 银行信贷资金集中度高10

3 利率变动对房地产价格的理论分析12

3.1 利率变动对房地产需求的影响12

3.1.1 利率变动对消费性需求的影响12

3.1.2 利率变动对投资性需求的影响12

3.2利率变动对房地产供给的影响13

3.2.1利率变动对增量房供给的影响13

3.2.2 利率变动对存量房供给的影响13

4 利率变动对房地产价格的实证分析14

4.1 数据来源及检验工具14

4.2 实证分析14

5 结论及政策建议17

5.1 调整物价统计样本，发挥房价预期作用17

5.2 增强利率市场化程度17

5.3 完善汇率体制，增强汇率与房价互动17

5.4 化解房价波动风险18

5.4.1 实施差别化房价调控政策18

5.4.2 促进房企转型与兼并重组，化解房地产价格波动风险18

5.4.3 预防房价波动引起金融风险19

5.5 结论20

参考文献